Essays in international trade and energy economics
Type of DegreePhD Dissertation
Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology
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This Dissertation consists of three empirical essays in international trade and energy economics. Chapter 1 examines whether the food market of Turkey is cointegrated with the world food market. Using an error correction model, we analyze the response of producer prices of wheat, barley, maize, soybean and rice to changes in world market prices. Results show that the rice market of Turkey is not cointegrated with the world rice market, while the other commodity markets are weakly cointegrated. Results also show that pass-through of changes in the world prices to the domestic prices is relatively low both in the short run and in the long run, and that adjustment to the new equilibrium following a shock is slow. Government intervention policies both at the border and as domestic price supports seem to be underlying causes that have weakened the linkage between domestic and international markets. Fewer protectionist policies at the border and lower levels of government support policies are necessary to increase the domestic market integration with the international market. Chapter 2 examines (i) whether the government interventions in the cotton market in the forms of border protection and as price support have weakened the integrations of domestic cotton markets with the world cotton market and (ii) how weak cointegration affects the world cotton trade. We address the first question by estimating price and exchange rates transmission elasticities using an error correction model and the second question by conducting a partial equilibrium model. Results indicate that the estimated elasticities are significantly smaller than unitary, which suggests that the cointegration is weak and the law of one price (LOP) does not hold. Furthermore, when cointegration is weak, exchange rate movements have lower impact on exports, imports and prices than they do in the case of strong cointegration. Chapter 3 examines whether retail gasoline prices in Turkey respond more quickly to increases in crude oil prices than to decreases. Using an asymmetric extension of Engle and Granger’s two stage error correction model with daily data, we find three types of asymmetries: (1) asymmetry from crude oil price to gasoline price in the short-run (2) asymmetry in the speeds of adjustment, and (3) asymmetry in the lag length. We argue that the oligopolistic coordination theory is the most likely explanation for the observed asymmetric price transmission.